Tuesday, June 17, 2008

Big Brown or Curlin?


There is only one true superstar on the Thoroughbred racing planet right now, and it isn't that worn-out 3-year-old who dissolved into a Big Brown meltdown in the Long Island heat during last Saturday's Belmont Stakes.
Curlin is king of the Sport of Kings, as the reigning Horse of the Year proved again Saturday, carrying 128 pounds in comfortable fashion, assuming control at the head of the stretch and cruising to a 4¼-length win in the Grade I Stephen Foster Handicap at Churchill Downs.
Remember that pre-Belmont chatter of a possible matchup, if not match race, between Big Brown and Curlin somewhere down the line?
Judging by the events of the past two Saturdays, it would be no match.
“This horse is just a dream of a lifetime,” said Steve Asmussen, the victorious trainer, who on Father's Day eve was surrounded by his three young sons, all wearing the same-design suit as the one worn by their father.
“I'm so thankful to Mr. (Jess) Jackson and Midnight Cry and the whole ownership group for bringing him back as a 4-year-old and letting us enjoy him,” Asmussen said.
It was Curlin's first race since he won in Dubai on March 29. It was his first race on U.S. soil since winning the Breeders' Cup at Monmouth Park last October. He was spotting his foes between 10-15 pounds, a handicap Asmussen groused about during the week. He was breaking from the No. 1 post.
“You're very nervous until you saw his head peek through the daylight at the head of the stretch,” Asmussen said. “When (jockey) Robby (Albarado) moved forward on him, the horse just lengthened stride and looked tremendous.”
Curlin is tremendous. He was a bit too green to win last year's Kentucky Derby, finishing third. He rebounded to nip Street Sense at the wire to win the Preakness. He lost the Belmont by a head to Rags to Riches. After a disappointing third in the Haskell, Curlin has ripped off five straight wins: the Jockey Club Gold Cup, the Breeders' Cup Classic, the Jaguar Trophy Handicap in Dubai, the World Cup in Dubai, and now the Stephen Foster.
His earnings have grown to $9.38 million, placing him behind Cigar's $9.99 million and Skip Away's $9.62.
Better still, the sport has prospered. To be sure, considering the legal problems of the minority Midnight Cry ownership, there are extenuating reasons Curlin is still racing. But the horse is a sterling example of what can happen when the sport keeps its stars on the track instead of shipping them so early to the breeding shed. A crowd estimated between 12,000 to 15,000 turned out at Churchill on Saturday.
“I don't know how many people have thanked us,” Jackson said, “and we've thanked them.”
“I can't tell you what a fan I am of his,” said Asmussen.
Racing fans were hoping for, down the road, a Big Brown-Curlin battle. Best 3-year-old vs. best 4-year-old. Asmussen, who can be a bit prickly but who keeps things low-key, vs. the brash, confident Dutrow, who had said that a race between the two would be good for the sport, good for Big Brown and bad for Curlin.
That was before the Belmont.
“Last year spoiled us,” Asmussen said. “For Hard Spun, Street Sense and Curlin to show up that many times and run that many excellent races, that's so rare. And now everybody's expecting that to show up, and they're talking match race and down the road. Down the road? It's the sooner the better because you're not always going to be in this position.
“You have to know how rare this is. And you have to savor it.”

Saturday, June 7, 2008

Big Brown's loss mob controlled?

Okay, unless they find something seriously wrong physically with Big Brown, I’m totally convinced that the New York Mob had something to do with Big Brown’s loss.

How does a long shot finish first over a horse like Big Brown? Why did the jockey pull up on the horse and apply brakes during the pace. This is unreal!

I hope that there is nothing wrong with Big Brown. I love that horse, but there is no reason why that horse should have finished dead last.

Big Brown - Losing Ticket On Ebay.


Big Brown Losing Ticket.

BIG BROWN - TODAY IS THE DAY!!

Thursday, June 5, 2008

Big Brown


Not since Whirlaway in 1941 has Thoroughbred racing witnessed such a domination of the opening two legs of its Triple Crown. The Big Brown express, which has rolled through Louisville and Baltimore in commanding style, now chugs along just one destination away from immortality: New York.

The historical barometers for Big Brown's Belmont Stakes are mixed. Much of that won't matter once the gates spring open. Many say a horserace is a horserace and stands alone on today's evaluation of talent, not yesterday's results. But this is, after all, a game not only rooted in opinions, but one-hundred percent fueled by them at the betting windows.

Big Brown BlowoutsIn winning the Kentucky Derby by 4-1/4 lengths and the Preakness by 5-3/4, Big Brown became just the fifth horse in history to win those races by a combined margin of 10 lengths or more, joining Smarty Jones (14-1/4 combined lengths), Whirlaway (13-1/2), Funny Cide (11-1/2) and Count Fleet (11). But only Big Brown and Whirlaway were able to win both races each by 4-1/4 lengths or more. Whirlaway romped by 8 lengths in the '41 Derby and 5-1/2 in the Preakness.

Of the nine most dominant winners of the Kentucky Derby and Preakness (by cumulative margin), six went on to annex the Triple Crown. Spectacular Bid, Funny Cide and Smarty Jones failed to finish the deal after commanding starts to the series. But the six dominant winners to sweep were all before 1949. So, if you want to spin things more modern, horses to win the Derby and Preakness by 7 or more combined lengths since 1948 are 0-for-3 in the Belmont.
And, In This Corner ...The number that might matter most on Belmont Stakes Day could very well be the total number of entrants. Note that none of the 11 horses to sweep the Triple Crown have ever bested more than 7 rivals at the Belmont Stakes. And, none of those 11 ever toppled more than 32 total rivals in the entire Triple Crown series.

Affirmed beat a grand total of 20 competitors in his 1978 Triple Crown coronation. By contrast, Big Brown already has shrugged away 30 challengers in the Derby (19) and Preakness (11).
Since Affirmed last won the Triple Crown, 10 aspirants to the throne (11 including Big Brown) have come calling at the Belmont. During that time, the average number of Belmont challengers has been 8.5. The 11 Triple Crown winners faced just 48 challengers combined or 4.7 per race.
Of the 29 all-time Triple Crown-bid-Belmonts, 22 have seen 9 or less horses in the starting gate.
Early in the recruitment stage, the potential Belmont field looks something like this: Big Brown, Casino Drive, Tale of Ekati, Anak Nakal, Denis of Cork, Macho Again, Icabad Crane and Tomcito.
Over/Under OddsIt's quite plausible Big Brown's Belmont Stakes odds will actually increase after going off at 20 cents on the dollar in the Preakness, due to the presence of unbeaten Japanese X-factor Casino Drive. The only Triple Crown winners to go to post at 20 cents on the dollar or less were Count Fleet (.20), Secretariat (.10) and Count Fleet (.05).
Depending on the field size, Big Brown should close in odds in the Smarty Jones (.35) and Spectacular Bid (.30) neighborhood. Rest assured, he won't be even-money or greater as were recent Triple Crown aspirants Funny Cide (1.00), War Emblem (1.25) and Charismatic (1.60).
Of the 29 horses all-time to reach the Belmont with a chance at history, 23 have been bet down to even-money or less.

Light SeasoningMuch was made about Big Brown becoming the first Kentucky Derby winner since Regret in 1915 with only three prior career starts. He comes to Belmont with five races under his belt, which is even light by modern standards of Triple Crown hopefuls. Sunday Silence, Silver Charm, Funny Cide and Smarty Jones all had eight races under their belts  the least amount of any Triple Crown hopefuls since Affirmed's sweep.

But note that likely Belmont opponents Casino Drive (two) and Denis of Cork (four) are even more lightly raced, and they very likely could go off second and third choices in the wagering. You're only as lightly raced as your competition; that's the modern day battle cry.
Where Art Thou Spoiler?Ten times since Affirmed the Triple Crown has been spoiled at Belmont. And, the role of the spoiler has been worn by horses of many different hats.
Three Belmont spoilers were complete newcomers to the Triple Crown trail: Coastal over Spectacular Bid, Summing over Pleasant Colony and Sarava over War Emblem.

Three Belmont spoilers were beaten in both the Derby and Preakness and found the third time to be the charm: Victory Gallop over Real Quiet; Easy Goer over Sunday Silence; and Bet Twice over Alysheba.

Two Belmont spoilers were horses who ran in the Derby, but skipped the Preakness and awaited the final leg of the series: Birdstone over Smarty Jones and Empire Maker over Funny Cide.
One Belmont spoiler was beaten in the Derby, came back to prep in-between elsewhere than the Preakness, and returned to the series victorious: Lemon Drop Kid over Charismatic.
One Belmont spoiler jumped into the Triple Crown fray in the Preakness (skipping the Derby): Touch Gold over Silver Charm.

Tuesday, June 3, 2008

Contenders for the 2008 Belmont Stakes

Before you jump on the Big Brown bandwagon, there are some contenders in the Belmont Stakes field that would love to spoil the Big Brown party.


Let's take a look at the 2008 Belmont Stakes contenders which we’ve listed below in no particular order…

Anak Nakal
Trainer: Nick ZitoFinishing seventh in the Kentucky Derby and sitting out for the Preakness Stakes, Anak Nakal is trying once more in case third time really is the charm. Since his win at the Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill Downs in November, he hasn’t managed to place in the top five of any of the races he’s run. His sire, Victory Gallop, won the Belmont 10 years ago. Maybe Anak Nakal will celebrate the anniversary by winning.

Behindatthebar
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Behindatthebar missed the Kentucky Derby in order to prepare for Preakness, but then had to skip Preakness due to a bruised foot. This could mean two things for Behindatthebar. Either he’ll be slow after taking it easy to heal his injury, or he’ll get a rush from weeks of pent-up energy after not being able to race.

Big Brown
Trainer: Richard Dutrow Jr.
Big Brown isn’t just making history as the juggernaut of the horse racing world; if he wins Belmont, he’ll also be the first Triple Crown champ to have done so in 30 years. His agility left many speechless after the Preakness and now the only thing left to ask is whether or not he’ll be able to keep up the momentum he’s been running with.

Casino Drive
Trainer: Kazuo Fujisawa
It’s being argued that if anyone were to take Big Brown down, it’ll be Casino Drive. He doesn’t have many races under his harness but the experience he’s had is worth mentioning. He won his first race in Japan by 11 ½ lengths. He won the Peter Pan Stakes at Belmont by 5 ¾ lengths. And if genes count for something, then you should take note that he’s the brother of the last two Belmont Stakes winners.

Denis of Cork
Trainer: David Carroll
Denis of Cork was a little rusty going into the Kentucky Derby but nonetheless came out in third place. He had won three races beforehand and placed fifth at the Illinois Derby. At the Kentucky Derby, he managed to get from last place to third. It seems as though he knows how to maintain a winning streak and get back up if he falters. Looks like he might prove to be another one of Big Brown’s competitors.

El Gato Malo
Trainer: Craig Dollase
Started off as an early favorite for the Kentucky Derby but then came up short on graded earnings after placing second in the Sham Stakes and fifth in the Santa Anita Derby. El Gato Malo thus missed the Kentucky and the Preakness and is debuting in the third leg of the 2008 Triple Crown.

Icabad Crane
Trainer: Graham Motion
At the Preakness Stakes, this colt was bringing up the back before racing hard to finish in third. He is continuously improving with the help of a great trainer and jockey, but when dethroning Big Brown is at stake, he’s going to need all that and then some. Hopefully June 7 might be the day he chooses to be a chip off the old block. His father, Jump Start, won the Belmont Stakes in 1992.

Macho Again
Trainer: Dallas Stewart
Placing second at the Preakness Stakes might be the closest Macho Again will ever get to beating Big Brown. Macho Again will need to focus on speed and agility to keep up with Big Brown.
Tale of Ekati Trainer: Barclay TaggRacing in spurts during the Kentucky Derby, Tale of Ekati managed to finish fourth. He’s swift and doesn’t give up, two key traits needed during the “Test of the Champion.”

Tomcito
Trainer: Dante Zanelli
To Tomcito’s advantage, he’s already won a 1.5 mile distance this year. To his disadvantage, he’s currently recuperating from minor throat surgery. Tomcito and his trainers are taking it day by day to see if he’ll be able to race at Belmont. Like El Gato Malo, short earnings after placing third in the Florida Derby and seventh at the Peter Pan Stakes kept Tomcito from qualifying at the Kentucky Derby.